Growth better than expected for one, one worsening unemployment for the other. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Labour Office (ILO) released a few hours apart, two reports that may seem totally contradictory.
The IMF raised its forecast for 2011 and now expects a global increase in GDP of 4.4% instead of the 4.2% forecast in October. Optimism due mainly to the United States. The institution chaired by the French Dominique Strauss-Kahn believes that U.S. growth forecast to 3% in 2011 and not 2.3%.The IMF applauded the tax cuts Bush-era and the current president of the United States, Barack Obama has agreed to extend the terms of tough negotiations with the Republicans.
The International Labour Office notes it a paradox: GDP, consumption, global trade are starting to rebound and unemployment "reached a record level for the third consecutive year," according to the terms of the report. It was 6.2% of world population in 2010."While the main macroeconomic indicators are green, there is always more than 20 million more unemployed in 2007," says FRANCE 24 Steven Kapsos, economist and author of the ILO report.
But the contradiction is in fact apparent. "Our findings come together," says Steven Kapsos. And indeed, the IMF also notes that the main point of his black table is the situation of the labor market continues to deteriorate particularly in the so-called developed countries. "The job has been harder hit than any other sector of the economy is the real conclusion of the current situation," said the author of the ILO report.
The danger European
It would in fact only a lag in the recovery.The International Labour Organisation and the International Monetary Fund expect the employment situation is improving slightly next year and then continues its momentum. But Steven Kapsos recognizes that nothing is played. "The greatest danger now is that in some countries, particularly in Europe, the high rate of unemployment becomes a structural," he warns. This is called a recovery without job creation. The only way to avoid it is to implement strong policies to support the economy, he said.
Remains in Europe such voluntarism is not on the agenda. To fight against deficits, European governments are hunting down expenses deemed unnecessary.Therefore, the IMF and ILO estimate that the euro area is one of the areas most at risk right now. A lack of flexibility which makes the European economies are particularly dependent on high-growth countries. Contrary to popular belief, indeed, "without the economic health of China, India or Brazil, there is much more unemployment in developed countries," concludes Steven Kapsos.
