"This is an extraordinary success for the Americans, but the situation is unclear," said Gerard Chaliand, geo-strategist, specializing in irregular warfare, called on the board of FRANCE 24. "I thought that bin Laden was long dead. It's a great surprise, "he said.
According to U.S. statements, Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, near the Pakistani capital. Localization is not surprising that Gerard Chaliand, because "the Pakistanis have not ceased to have an ambiguous attitude. They obviously had the same interests as Americans.The big question is the role they played. "
How can Pakistanis react?Cédric Molle-Laurençon, FRANCE 24 journalist who has worked in Pakistan, asks him about how the Pakistanis feel that U.S. special forces operation in the heart of their country. "The Pakistanis are living less and less drone strikes on their territory. So imagine how the Pakistani street is going to live this action of a U.S. commando a few kilometers from the capital! "
Nobody knows the exact reasons for the presence of the most wanted man in the world in this big house that the Americans had spotted for several months.But according to Roland Jacquard, president of the International Observatory of Terrorism, bin Laden moved towards Islamabad to health problems and resolve tensions with his assistants.
Al-Qaeda can it survive the death of its leader?Experts interviewed on FRANCE 24 are very divided on the future of Al-Qaeda nebula. Roland Jacquard, "an ideology survives her head. Al-Qaeda figures within its ranks as important as that bin Laden Ayman al-Zawahiri. " This researcher believes, however, likely a war of succession.Yves Bonnet, former director of the Directorate for Territorial Surveillance (DST), confirms the hypothesis of survival of the terrorist: "It is obvious that this organization will continue to exist and to harm. But no one has the charisma of bin Laden. It is an irreplaceable loss for the image of Al Qaeda. "
What can happen to the hostages?Gerard Longuet, the French Minister of Defense, said on RTL radio Monday morning that the death of Osama bin Laden was "a significant event for the world", noting that this information could still play "positively" about the fate of French journalists hostages in Afghanistan. "
On the set of FRANCE 24, the experts are more cautious.The former politician Yves Bonnet tempers by saying that bin Laden exercised "no control" over al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Same analysis Farhad Khosrokhavar, director of studies at EHESS and researcher at CADIS, according to whom "it may open doors but bin Laden led much more."
What about the risk of retaliation?Experts interviewed by FRANCE 24 do not exclude possible terrorist reprisals spectrum without the necessary estimate.Mohamed Sifaoui, writer on Islam: "We can expect retaliation, but a Type 11-September is unthinkable in the short term."
"Overall, Al Qaeda will leave in history the same brand as the anarchists, ie a footnote on page," said Gerard Chaliand.
